Tuesday, 30 May 2017

Manchester Bomber May Have Been Groomed By UK Intelligence

Whitney Webb — Mint Press May 27, 2017
As the worst terrorist attack to hit the United Kingdom since 2005, last week’s bombing of a concert in Manchester has since been a constant fixture of the news cycle both in the UK and abroad. bsent from mainstream media accounts of the event – and the man allegedly behind it – are several key coincidences that have raised concerns, particularly regarding links between British intelligence and the alleged suicide bomber, British-born Salman Abedi.
Absent from mainstream media accounts of the event, however – and the man allegedly behind it – are several key coincidences that have raised concerns, particularly regarding links between British intelligence and the alleged suicide bomber, British-born Salman Abedi.
Media reports have already established that Abedi, a Libyan national, was radicalized in the hotbed of radical extremism that Libya has become since the U.S.-NATO backed invasion that ousted Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.
Though most mainstream accounts don’t mention the UK’s role in destabilizing and overthrowing the Libyan government in 2011 – that is, causing Libya’s current state of chaos by arming right-wing rebels who now make up al-Qaeda and ISIS – several have mentioned the link between Abedi and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG).

When the Western-orchestrated uprising began in 2011, Abedi and his father, Ramadan Abedi, returned to Libya to fight on behalf of the LIFG. As the West sought to overthrow Gaddafi, British intelligence agency MI5 established a “rat line” that sent anti-Gaddafi exiles living in England to the front lines in Tripoli and elsewhere.
As reported by Middle East Eye, MI5 utilized an “open door” policy that allowed Libyan exiles and British-Libyan citizens to freely travel to Libya to help topple Gaddafi, even though some had been subject to counter-terrorism control orders. One British citizen with ties to Libya was under house arrest at the time for suspected ties to extremist groups. However, he was allowed to travel to Libya with no questions asked.
MI5’s ties to the LIFG go back decades. One MI5 whistleblower asserted that the UK covertly funded the LIFG, which at the time was an al-Qaeda affiliate, in order to help them carry out a failed assassination attempt targeting Gaddafi.
In addition, the Telegraph reported that “A group of Gaddafi dissidents, who were members of the outlawed Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), lived within close proximity to Abedi in Whalley Range” in Manchester. “Among them was Abd al-Baset Azzouz, a father of four from Manchester, who left Britain to run a terrorist network in Libya overseen by Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s successor as leader of al-Qaeda,” the report added.
This information suggests that the UK government knowingly and intentionally harbored al-Qaeda-linked terrorists within their borders, suggesting that the UK government’s private stance on al-Qaeda may be different than its public stance, as the ties between these men and the LIFG were hardly a secret.
If true, the UK government would not be alone in its attempts to legitimize the LIFG. In 2011, U.S. Senator and notorious war hawk John McCain met with the group and later asserted that they were not terrorists, but “patriots.” The U.S. government further cemented this perspective in 2015, when it removed the LIFG from its list of designated terror organizations.
In addition, Abedi had been reported to British authorities years ago, when he allegedly expressed support for suicide bombings. The authorities took no action. In fact, the British government allowed him to travel to Libya even after he was flagged as a potential terrorist.

This finding prompted journalist Max Blumenthal to pointedly ask in an article for Alternet: “What did the British government know about Abedi and when did it know it? Was British intelligence attempting to groom Abedi as an informant?”
Such actions on behalf of British intelligence are hardly unheard of. Indeed, MI5 had tried the same with Mohammed Emwazi, better known as the Daesh member “Jihadi John.” MI5 hounded Emwazi for nearly four years in their attempts to recruit him as a spy, threatening him with harsh punishment if he refused to collaborate. Upon leaving the UK in 2013, Emwazi said he blamed MI5 for driving him to “the brink of madness.”

Other documents released by the human rights group Cage UK have revealed how MI5 has not only groomed extremists as collaborators but also worked to push young, vulnerable men down the path of extremism. These findings suggest that Abedi may have been just another one of their pawns.

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مصادر القوة بين ترامب وبوتين وحلفائهما


مصادر القوة بين ترامب وبوتين وحلفائهما

ناصر قنديل


ناصر قنديل

مايو 29, 2017

– يبدو الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين وأركان إدارته في حال من الاسترخاء في التعامل مع أيّ مؤشر لتصعيد أميركي أو تلويح بعقوبات أو تغيير قواعد الاشتباك، وينسحب هذا البرود على حلفاء بوتين. فإيران التي تشكل عنوان حملة أميركية لم تتوقف حلقاتها لم تتعامل بعد باعتبار التهديد الأميركي جدياً وقادراً على فرض قواعد جديد ة للتوازنات القائمة، وسورية التي نالها ميدانياً ما أسماه الأميركيون وحلفاؤهم بتغيير قواعد الاشتباك عبر أعمال عسكرية أميركية مباشرة، ونال رئيسها تصعيد كلامي من الرئيس الأميركي، تبدو مطمئنة وهي تستكمل ميدانياً تقدّم قواتها كاسرة ما يفترض أنها الخطوط الحمر الأميركية، سواء ما يتصل بالتوازن العسكري بوجه الجماعات المسلحة التي تتهاوى مناطق سيطرتها أمام الجيش السوري، خصوصاً في دمشق وأرياف حمص وحماة وحلب، أو ما يتصل بالسعي لبلوغ الحدود مع العراق وملاقاة الحشد الشعبي عبرها، حيث تخطى الجيش السوري والحشد الشعبي مخاطر القدرة على التلاقي عبر الحدود، ومؤخراً جاء كلام السيد حسن نصرالله بعد قمم الرياض ليسخر من الحديث عن تغيير في التوازنات، مؤكداً أنّ الصراخ لا يغيّر الموازين، وأنّ محور المقاومة أقوى من أيّ وقت مضى.

– قد لا نقع على تفسير لهذه الثقة من كلام صادر عن أيّ من المراجع الأربعة في محور المواجهة مع أميركا، روسيا وإيران وسورية وحزب الله، بمقدار ما قدّمه لنا السيد نصرالله في خطابه الأخير، حيث يقدّم الخطاب بخلاصته ثلاثة معايير للقوة، أولها الإرادة والوضوح في الرؤية، والثاني تماسك العلاقة بين القيادة وجمهورها وحيوية مساهمته في معاركها، والثالث تماسك جبهة الحلفاء على رؤية مشتركة وتضامن في وجه التحديات وبقياس هذه المعايير يبدو وضع روسيا وإيران وسورية وحزب الله نموذجياً، وفي أحسن أحواله، وبالفعل أقوى من أيّ وقت مضى، بينما يبدو الأميركي وحلفاؤه الرئيسيون في المنطقة من تركيا والسعودية و«إسرائيل» في أسوأ أحوالهم، وأضعف من أيّ وقت مضى.

– الأميركي يواجه وضعاً داخلياً لا يُحسد عليه، خصوصاً مع المراجعات القضائية التي بلغت حدّ انتزاع اعترافات من صهره ومستشاره الأقرب حول سعيه لإقامة قناة مخابراتية سرية مع موسكو، وفي ظلّ انقسام شعبي وتراجع في المهابة، وممانعة في المؤسسات التقليدية، وغياب للتغطية الحزبية بينما يواجه أردوغان أزمات من الداخل إلى العلاقة مع واشنطن وأوروبا والسعودية، والضياع بين التموضع مع روسيا وإيران أو البقاء في حلف يعمل ضدّه ويتداعى أمامه وتواجه السعودية وضعاً داخلياً مالياً وسياسياً مأزوماً سواء في عجز الموازنة وتراجع المداخيل النفطية أو في تداعيات حرب اليمن او التنازع بين ولي العهد وولي ولي العهد على العرش والسعي لنيل البركة الأميركية، أو في الداخل الشعبي الذاهب لحرب طائفية وتواجه «إسرائيل» ارتباكها التاريخي بين خياري مصلحة الانفتاح على مسرحية تسوية تربح بها حلفاً مالياً وعسكرياً وسياسياً يضعها بوجه إيران وفي قلب الخليج، لكنه يثير اليمين والمتطرفين الدينيين، وبين تلبية ما يريده اليمين من تصعيد يذهب بها لحروب تعرف عجزها عن تحمّل تبعاتها.

– يسجل الرئيس الروسي في المقابل شعبية غير مسبوقة، ويخرج الرئيس الإيراني من انتخابات شارك فيها ثلاثة أرباع المقترعين وحصد خلالها نسبة عالية من الأصوات، ويحصد الرئيس السوري ثمار صموده ورؤيته للحرب على بلده بالمزيد من التماسك في الكتلة الشعبية الواقفة وراءه ووراء الجيش السوري، والتي تقدّم المزيد من الانخراط في الحرب لصالح رؤيته مع تحقيق المزيد من الانتصارات السياسية والعسكرية، بينما يمسك حزب الله شارعه بقوة وها هو ينجح في تذليل العقبات التي صنعت له لتفجير علاقته بحليفه الرئيس التيار الوطني الحر سواء في ملف العلاقة بالسعودية أو ملف قانون الانتخابات. ويبدو الرباعي متماسكاً حول الرؤية الموحدة وفي مضمون التمسك بالتحالف المشترك وحمايته، بينما يبدو الحلف المقابل هشاً متناقضاً مفككاً عاجزاً عن حلّ مشكلة صغيرة قياساً بما يُقال عن أهداف الحلف، كتلك الناتجة عن دور الأكراد في الحرب على داعش، أو تلك التي أشعلت الخليج بين قطر والسعودية، والحبر الذي كُتب عن القمم التاريخية للرئيس الأميركي لم يجفّ بعد.

– قليل من التدقيق لما هو آتٍ سيقول ما هو أكثر، فنحن في أول المنحنى البياني للإبهار الناتج عن نصف السنة الأولى من عهد رئيس جديد، سيُفرغ ما في جعبته ويبدأ بعدها التهاوي الدراماتيكي لتظهير الحقائق الأشدّ إيلاماً، سواء في مستقبل العلاقة الأميركية التركية، أو مستقبل العلاقة السعودية القطرية، أو في مستقبل الحدود السورية العراقية، أو في مستقبل الحرب على داعش وتوازناتها، أو في مستقبل الأردن، أو في انتقال التناقضات إلى حدّ الانفجار في مستقبل ليبيا، ومَن يعِش يرَ…

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Hassan Nasrallah on Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia

Speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah on May 25, 2017, on the occasion of the seventeenth anniversary of the Liberation of Southern Lebanon
(Please make sure to press the ‘cc’ button at the bottom left of the video to see the English subtitles)


Transcript :
Let’s evoke the summit (of Riyadh). First, it was said that it was a triple [American-Arab-Muslim] summit, when in fact there was only one summit, Saudi Arabia and the United States, that is, between President Trump and King Salman, and the accompanying delegations.
The summit between the United States and the Gulf countries was nothing but a meeting of courtesy, a presentation, a ceremony. The (alleged) US-Arab-Islamic summit, bringing together 55 or 56 countries, was but a standing ovation to President Trump, and it was not a summit or conference. There were no preparatory committees, no material distributed to participants, no preliminary meeting of foreign ministries or ministries of defense…, neither draft declaration, nor debate, nor negotiations, nor exchanges, nor nothing all.
They brought together the Presidents of all the places of the [world]… most of the Arab and Islamic countries, then the King Salman gave a speech, President Trump gave a speech and then two or three words and that’s it, it was over. Even the rest of the statements were not made, because the King was then tired – at least that is what they have said in the media. And it was over. And everyone went home. This is the true description (of what happened). Everyone has returned to their country. There are even some delegations who have complained that no one took care to accompany them at the airport, “No one has taken leave of us.” And they were then all surprised to hear of what was called the Riyadh Declaration.
Here is the Riyadh Declaration (in my hands). This is only a US-Saudi statement. Of the 55 Arab countries, most were unaware of the existence of the Declaration and its content. And in itself, this is a scandal. Look, for example, on the text in the Declaration, it says that “The leaders present debated…”, “The leaders have confirmed…”, “The leaders stressed…”, “The leaders welcomed…”, “The leaders decided…”, etc. Whereas in reality the leaders have not debated, nor welcomed, nor underlined, they knew nothing, they did not hear anything, and there were even those who were sleeping…
Well afterwards, they became aware of the Declaration through the media. They learned about the statement through the media. The Riyadh Declaration is an American-Saudi Declaration, period. And of course, this is an outrage, and demonstrates a position of weakness, and of the farce that these (pseudo) summits and conferences constitute. Things do not happen like that anywhere in the world. And anyway, it has precedents in Saudi Arabia. Such a thing already happened before a year or two, in front of the resistance of Yemen and the Yemeni people, the Saudi Foreign Minister went out to raise the morals of his supporters and announced an Islamic Military Alliance of some 30 countries. And some countries have had the courage to say “Wallah, we are not aware, nobody told us or asked, we heard that in the media.” Imagine, then, a world Islamic military alliance is being formed (supposedly) with some countries some of which are not even aware of it! And they are informed by the media. It is not new for Saudi Arabia and (it is in accordance with) its (usual) processes. Therefore, the true summit is the bipartite summit (United States / Saudi Arabia).
So much for the background. What needs to be looked at closely, critically and debated is the bipartite agreement and what has been offered to the United States, what the United States has pledged in return and the consequences of this on the region, this is what is really serious. Everything else is speeches, words, stances, dinner, ceremonies, supper, fashion show, everything you want.
Secondly, the so-called summit, which has been called a summit and for which were brought together a great number of countries, leaders and Presidents, we must ask ourselves: “Oh brother, what did happen?” We must first describe it. Why? What Saudi Arabia has organized, what is it and what is its motive?
What was organized, the objectives of this mass meeting, are first to magnify and honor Trump. What happened was an operation of glorification of Trump, it was to honor him and to incense him, with scenes that deserve to be dwelt on but that I do not want to develop now (luxury, indecency,…).
The second objective is to underline the essential role of Saudi Arabia in the Gulf and in the Arab-Islamic world. They wanted to say to the United States: “We are the heart of the Arab-Islamic world and the Gulf. It is we who bring together all the people, who bring them in, who summon them, who put them in line so that they may listen to your speech.”
So much for the moral and political aspect, with a result that I will soon get to.
The third objective is to intimidate Iran and the Resistance Axis, by saying: “Watch out, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas” (because they have designated us by name, Hezbollah and Hamas), “O Resistance movements”, as well as the Iraqi people, Yemen, everyone, “take heed and watch out, for the United States is coming, and the whole world mass of Arab, Islamic countries and the Gulf are preparing to make war on you.” It’s intimidation. Of course, this has absolutely no weight, I will come back to it.
The fourth objective is to try to push the United States and convince them, by all means, to participate directly in the war. To bring them directly into the conflict, facing Iran and the Resistance Axis. Saudi Arabia, when it organized this whole festival, had as its main objective this one. That’s it.
Then those who had the floor made their speeches, and the Declaration was published.
The question that needs to be asked now is why the Saudis did this, and with that particular Président. Why? Let’s start with the first goal.
Why are these honors, incensing and glorification of President Trump, which has the following characteristics: the President, who for one year during the election campaign most insulted Islam as a religion, who insulted Muslims as supporters of a religion and as a Community, and who is the President who has insulted the Arabs most as a people, and who insulted Saudi Arabia and insulted the Gulf countries. Is not it the President who said that Saudi Arabia is a milking cow that must be milked to the last drop before it is disposed of? This is the most racist President. It was the first President who, when he entered the White House, signed a decree banning Muslims and nationals from 8 Arab and Islamic countries from entering the United States. It is the President most attached to Israel, the greatest supporter and ally of Israel. And it is a President who, apart from that, has done nothing yet.
(Normally), we honor someone, we cover him with gifts and we satisfy his wishes because he has achieved something positive. (If for example) he defended you, if he defended your holy places, if he did things for the Palestinian people. (But) what is Trump’s accomplishment for offering all these rewards? And it is a President sitting on a trembling chair, we do not know when it will fall. What a mess, all this money, if Trump were to be deposed! What logic, what rationality, what understanding are there at work? We are really stunned by the (extravagant) Saudi reception, the follies of the reception ceremony, the tremendous expenses (for arms sales agreements), politics and ovations.
On the Internet, someone has asked a sagacious question to Saudi leaders. He asked them:
“Is honoring the Prophet and celebrating his birthday prohibited and innovative, while honoring Trump and celebrating his coming and dancing is permitted and is a way to get closer to God the Most High ?”
Let us leave that aside, it is a religious dispute between us (the question of the celebration of the Prophet’s birthday). But from a political point of view, my brother, where is logic?
And this President was offered what no other American President had ever received. The question always comes back, why, why, why? I will talk about it in my fourth point. Why did Saudi Arabia do that?
I hope that [everyone understands that] I am speaking only of facts, I do not use any vehement or satirical language or anything else. I just want to describe things (as they are). And the one who says to me: “O Sayed, what you say is not true”, no problem, (let him show his arguments).
First, it is to protect themselves. For the Saudi regime to protect itself in Saudi Arabia. To protect itself from the world. Why? Because today in the world, even in the United States, Europe and the whole world, it is no longer a secret that behind the takfiris groups and the takfiri ideology, lies the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The whole world is now aware of it. And Trump himself knows it, he had talked about it during the election campaign. The press and the American, Western and international media (have spoken of it), everyone knows. What does ISIS teach in its schools? The books of Sheikh Muhammad b. Abd-al-Wahhab, the Wahhabi books. What is Al-Qaeda’s ideology? Wahhabism. Who created it? Saudi Arabia.
And that is why the whole world today considers the Saudi regime as the heart of takfiri thought and the essential support of the takfiri organizations in the world whose oppression and knives not only strike the Lebanese, the Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis, Egyptians, Afghans and Pakistanis, but have reached Belgium, France, Great Britain, Germany, the United States and all over the world. And now Indonesia, Somalia… and they still have a long way to go. Saudi Arabia feels that the whole world looks at her angrily. That is why it needs to pay a bribe to the American master to defend it, so that it protects it, so that it presents it as a center of combat of the terrorism that leads the war against Terrorism, and to lift the accusation against it. But it will be to no avail.
Do you see how in this summit all Saudi Arabia’s care and concern was to say what? A sentence pronounced by King Salman: that Iran is the source of terrorism, the heart of international terrorism since the victory of the Khomeini Revolution, according to his words. Since the victory of the Revolution of the glorious Imam Khomeini. These grotesque remarks were pronounced by the King Salman. Iran is the heart of global terrorism? Is it Iran that created Al-Qaeda? Is it Iran that created ISIS? Is it Iran that created the Taliban? Is it Iran that created these Wahhabi movements and armies? Is it Iran that financed them and armed them?
Yes, Iran supported the movement of the Resistance in Lebanon, it is true. Iran has supported the movement of the Resistance in Palestine, it is true. Iran stood by the Iraqi people when ISIS nearly entered Najaf, Karbala and Baghdad. Iran stood with the Syrian people while Saudi Arabia was sending arms and money to these (terrorist) groups in Syria.
Iran is accused of sectarian incitement? Who therefore accuses the Shiites of being disbelievers? Who accuses other Muslims of disbelief? Iran or the Saudi Wahhabi ideology, the Council of the great Saudi scholars and their centers of religious education in Syria? The whole history of Saudi Arabia consists of accusations of disbelief against Muslims. And the whole history of Iran, from Imam Khomeini, has been the bringing together of schools (of Islamic faith), unity among Muslims, rapprochement, dialogue, coexistence, mutual support based on piety and Fear of God.
Launching the accusation against Iran will not benefit Saudi Arabia. A popular phrase says “The sun rises and people clear their throats.” The whole world clears its throat, for the sun has risen over all the world, and henceforth the truth cannot be hidden by a discourse here or a conference there.
First, (Saudi Arabia has done all of this) to face this global condemnation. Currently, in the United States, judicial proceedings are being instituted against Saudi princes who are linked to the September 11 attacks organized by Al-Qaeda in the United States. And billions of Saudi dollars in the US will be seized for the benefit of these families.
Secondly… Why did Saudi Arabia do all this with Trump during those two days? Because she also needs the American master to protect her role in the area. She has failed everywhere. All her plans have failed, as have all her wars and all her objectives. In Syria, she has failed so far, as well as in Iraq.
O my brothers, ISIS started in Saudi Arabia, ISIS not only has Saudi ideology, but its money is Saudi, its leaders are Saudi, and the hopes that were placed in ISIS were Saudi. That’s it.
In Yemen, two and a half years of war against a people with the spirit of sacrifice, patient and honorable, and they brought armies of the world (to participate). It is unfortunate that the Sudanese army is involved, as well as other armies. It’s really unfortunate. But for two and a half years, the Yemenis endured and resisted, stronger despite hunger, siege, poverty, and indiscriminate bombardment night and day.
And let us go back to terrorism. Is Iran the basis of terrorism or is it you? This war against Yemen is not terrorism? It is state terrorism. It is state terrorism that has spared no man, no construction, no mosque, no historical vestige, no hospital, no market, no school, no university, no house, no quarter, no field, no farm. And today… now they send some medicine to Yemen… Who is besieging Yemen? Who starves Yemen? Who is responsible for cholera in Yemen? Who massacres the people of Yemen? The Saudi regime. And the whole world is silent. The whole world that keeps silent and dares not speak a word of truth out of fear of Saudi takfir or Saudi media or the cutback of Saudi money – if they give two pennies. And it is a historic ethical and humanitarian crime that commits the world towards what is happening in Yemen.
Thus, Saudi Arabia has failed in all her plans and wars in the region, and these failures have begun to be felt within, on the relations between her princes, her people, her economy. And that is why she needs the Americans to protect it inside Saudi Arabia and preserve her role in the region. So first, to protect themselves. To protect and protect their role.
And second, there is a problem in the Saudi regime and the Saud family, and that is Iran. The praise they gave Iran before Imam Khomeini is incredible. Incredible. The Shah of Iran was an American, an Israeli, a supporter of Israel, and an arrogant and haughty behavior with the kings and princes of the Arabian peninsula and the Gulf countries. Just look at the pictures, you can find them on the Internet, they ate in his hand, and put themselves at his feet. It seems that these people are accustomed to people who mock them, insult and despise them. As for the one who comes to them as a brother, respectful, wanting dialogue, anxious about Islamic relations and the interests of the (Muslim) Community, he is received with this hatred and hostility.
The problem is the question of Iran, yes, and the question of the Resistance Axis. Saudi Arabia has offered Trump everything to wage war against Iran, to isolate Iran, to attack Iran, for the war on the Resistance Axis. That is the reality. And that is why Saudi Arabia was ready to give him everything he wanted. That is what happened. And Trump, what’s important to him? President Trump, in everything that happens in the world, what is it that matters to him? He wants money, and there is Israel. Money and Israel.
Saudi Arabia looked like that and said, “To protect and preserve my role, and to lead the United States to fight Iran and the Resistance Axis, after all these Organizations, all these movements and all these armies, all have failed, I have no choice but to bring the Americans. Well, how can I win the favors of Americans? God, I know how to get closer to Him: prayer, Ramadan fasting, Hajj, Umrah, invocations, ziyaras (holy visits of Saints), Koran… Well, how do I get closer to Trump? By what he loves. And what he loves is money. So “Take it to satiety, O Trump. Take it to satiety.”
The media talked about $ 110 billion in contracts. After that, they talked about $ 300 billion. What is the total sum officially? The Al-Arabiya channel announced it in its drop-down strip at the bottom of the screen: 480 billion dollars of contracts and agreements with American companies. 480 billion dollars while there is austerity, poverty and an economic crisis in Saudi Arabia. All they had in money, they offered it to Trump.
What about Palestine? And that is why [Saudi Arabia declares]: “Whatever you decide for Palestine, we agree.” And Trump brought a letter from King Salman to Netanyahu. That’s it. “Whatever you decide for Palestine, we agree.” And that is why during the triple summit, no one said a word about the Palestinian people, nor about the prisoners on hunger strike for the 38th or 39th day, nor about the hundreds of them who were transported to hospitals as a result of deteriorating health, either on the holy sites, on Al-Quds (Jerusalem), on Gaza, or on the siege of Gaza. Any word that could have disturbed Trump on the Palestinian issue was kept silent. And God knows what they have conceded to him on the Palestinian question.
We must wait to see. There is talk of a forthcoming summit in Sharm-el-Sheikh, there is talk of launching new negotiations… Taking into consideration that when Trump arrived at Netanyahu, and even when he saw President Abbas, he has not given the least positive sign to Palestinian causes, not even minimally. Not even minimally, absolutely no positive signs.
That’s it. Saudi Arabia has been given a tremendous amount of money, and Palestine is now offered on a golden plate, and all this glorification and incensing is intended to achieve these ends.
Well, what is going to happen or what can happen? And that is the most important part of the speech. Thank God, we still have a little time.
First, Iran, which was the main topic of the Riyadh Declaration. And I would like to tell you one thing… O my brother, even the words that have been spoken… For example, the Jordanian king spoke. Of course, two and a half pages (barely). He did not talk about Iran. The Egyptian President spoke. He did not talk about Iran. The Prince of Kuwait spoke, he did not talk about Iran. Only the Malaysian (President) mentioned Iran. Only the Malaysian (President) mentioned it. But was not this summit against Iran, this Declaration against Iran?! This is what Saudi Arabia wanted the leaders who were present to say, and who did not know what was going on. What is the result?
First, with regard to Iran. I will tell you what will happen.
First, with regard to Iran, while these people were gathering in Riyadh, the Iranian people renewed their confidence in the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran. And 42 million people took part in the elections. That is more than 73% of the people entitled to vote. And for clarification, it was presidential and municipal elections. Municipal elections in Iran. If we count only those who hold the ballot boxes, this makes 650,000 people responsible. We know how it works in Lebanon. When municipal elections are held, it cannot be done in one day throughout all Lebanon. It is done by districts. Iran, with 42 million voters, sensitive presidential elections, municipal elections even more sensitive, as is the case for us, and in spite of that, no incident has taken place, neither blows, nor shots, nor accidents of the road, nor wounded, despite all the sensitivity of the event. And Iran has elected its President, renewing its allegiance. Well, this is what Iran is.
Such is Iran that is confronted by countries that do not know the meaning of elections, nor the sense of democracy, nor do they know the electoral ballot box… If you presented them with this white ballot box, they would ask you “What’s in it, eggs, cheese or milk?” They know nothing (of all that). They would like to make war on an authentic Republic, which represents the will of its people, and whose people are so strongly present, through their declarations, their announcements, and so on.
You have tried this in the past. Saudi Arabia is the country that incited Saddam Hussein to the war against Iran, 8 years of war. They are the ones who say they paid $ 200 billion for Saddam Hussein. What was the consequence of the war for the whole region? During the past decades, Saudi Arabia has not neglected any action that could weaken Iran, it has tried everything. What could she do again? Tell me.
So much for Iran. And I tell them that Iran is increasingly powerful, formidable and influential, and the whole world recognizes it.
And as far as I’m talking about Iran, I advise Saudi Arabia… because we do not just describe, we want to give advice. Leave aside the struggle, the hatred and the war. Your only way out in the interest of all Muslims, the whole region, the Gulf countries and the peoples of the region is dialogue with Iran, negotiations with Iran, and Iran has always been ready for that. This path you will take will lead to no result, if not the expenditure of more billions of dollars, the effusion of more blood, and you will be the losers. It is you who will fail, as you have failed so far, as you have lost so far, and as Iran has won so far. This is the advice of a Muslim Arab Lebanese to a Muslim Arab state – which declares itself to belong to the name of Islam. As for this path (which you trod today), it will lead to nothing.
Secondly, in Yemen, this summit will not accelerate nor delay anything. The Yemeni people, the Islamic and patriotic leaders in Yemen, the Yemeni parties, the Yemeni army and the people’s committees are all resolved to face and resist, and so far they resisted (successfully). And all that Saudi Arabia could possibly do militarily for two and a half years, it did. All the mercenaries they could bring, they brought them. All the armies they could bring, they brought them. All they could use in air force, they used it. They besieged, plus the cholera, the hunger, the diseases, of which we have already spoken. But what is the result? A military fiasco and a political fiasco. I do not want to go into the details of southern and northern Yemen and what is happening in Aden. And that is why, as I also know, this Saudi path and the announcement of Riyadh have absolutely no weight with regard to the ongoing battle in Yemen and the resistance in Yemen.
In Iraq, the Iraqi people have made their choice. Iraqi forces are headed for the final victory in Mosul where only small quarters remain (to be liberated). The People’s Committees have finished (liberating) the al-Qayrawan area and are heading towards al-Ba’aj and will continue to all areas. In Iraq, there is a national, official, popular consensus of parties and scholars to put an end to ISIS.
In Syria, there are more victories in the field, as happens in the south of Palmyra, east of Homs and elsewhere, and more defeats and retreats for the ISIS organization.
Let me tell you that this precautionary force, the 38,000 soldiers they are preparing to fight ISIS in 2018, good for you. But God willing, in 2018, there will be no more ISIS, neither in Iraq nor in Syria, at least in our region here. That’s it.
As far as the Resistance movements are concerned, you mentioned Hezbollah and Hamas, but in fact, all Resistance movements are targeted. All those who fight the Zionists and the Occupation. I would also like to say to you: this Summit, these Declarations and these announcements will not accelerate nor delay anything at all. You have to realize that for example, Trump, the President of the United States, in his speech to the so-called summit, he praises Saudi Arabia and says that she resists and combats terrorism, and the evidence that he gave is that yesterday Saudi Arabia placed one of Hezbollah’s top leaders on the list of terrorist organizations. And (that’s it): welcome to you (in the anti-terror front)! And all the money that we [Hezbollah] have in the banks of Paris, London, the United States, Switzerland, and I don’t know where else, we give it to you with a good heart, enjoy it. Take it then (this non-existent money). But that’s part of the war.
What I want to sayto these Lebanese and Palestinian Resistant movements, whether they are called Hezbollah or any other name, Hamas or any other name, from the beginning, they know the path that they have chosen, they know the path they are trodding, and they know what they are going to face along the way. We are registered, our name is on the list of terrorist organizations since the early 1980s! So what’s new for us? (We have been under) sanctions for a very long time. The media war has been going on for a long time, decades before the Riyadh summit. Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent to tarnish our reputation. What more can you say than what you have already said? (You accused us) of drug trafficking, stealing cars, terrorists, murderers and criminals. Good job, that’s good for you, what’s next? Tell us. I want to tell you, O my brothers and sisters, there is nothing new that we can fear from them. There is nothing new that we can fear from them. They are just repeating everything they have been doing over and over again for decades.
As for the movements of the Resistance, these movements of the Resistance, where were assassinated Sheikh Ahmad Yassin (Hamas), Doctor Fathi Chiqaqi (Islamic Jihad), Sayed Abbas al-Musawi and Hajj Imad Mughniyah (Hezbollah), they fear no threats of confrontation, fighting, war or death. With what can you come to us (to frighten us)? With martyrdom? We are the lovers of martyrdom! With death? “Ali is more attached to death than the suckling infant to the breast of his mother.” (Word of Imam Ali)
[At your service, O Nasrallah! (audience shouts)]
We are the children of the school advocated by Imam Hussein, peace be upon him, to his son Ali al-Akbar. (Al-Akbar) asked his father: “Are we not on the right path?” “Yes”, replied the Imam. (Al-Akbar) replied, “So little matter if we go to meet death or if death comes to meet us. As long as we are on the right track (we cannot fear death).”
As for Qasim, his 11 or 12 year old son, who is present in each of our houses, in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Yemen, Bahrain, inside Saudi Arabia itself, and everywhere in the Islamic world, when asked what he thought of death (while fighting oppression), he replied: “It is more flavorful to me than honey.” Are you threatening us with this death?
We are not afraid of death, war, fighting, sanctions, intimidation or media defamation. All this, we have experienced, these means have been exhausted during all the past years. This is why the Resistance movements will not bear any impact, they will not be shaken, weakened or frightened, they will continue their action and movement.
And I’m telling you more than that. We are today, we Resistance movements and within the Resistance Axis, we are today stronger than we have ever been. We are really stronger than we have ever been, absolutely ever. We are more numerous, more experienced, more determined, our faith, hopes and aspirations are higher than ever. Indeed.
We have an example of that that I mentioned in my last speech, the day of (the anti-terrorist summit of) Sharm el-Sheikh. Those who have just met in Riyadh do not even represent half of those who were in Sharm-el-Sheikh in 1996. At the time, there were the United States, Russia, China, European countries, the Arab countries, the African countries, they came from all over the world. And they said there were three organizations they wanted to eradicate: Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. And they included Iran and Syria as supporters (of these groups). And they made a conference, organized committees, and the Directors of the Intelligence services then met in Washington.
At that time, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon was limited in resources and manpower. What we had best was Katyushas with a range of 20 kilometers. That was our maximum in 1996. Hamas and Islamic Jihad were some in prison, some in exile, some were hiding, etc. And Iran was emerging from a war and was in trouble. Syria was imposed a blockade and isolation. Despite this, the Sharm-el-Sheikh Summit and all they did, as a result of the persistence of the Resistance in Lebanon, the persistence of the Resistance in Palestine, the perseverance of Syria, Iran, everything (they schemed) was overthrown. And after a few months, the whole world forgot Sharm-el-Sheikh, after a few months (only), not after a few years.
And today, where is the Resistance Axis in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq? In 1996, Iraq was with Saddam Hussein. Today, Iraq is ruled by its people, and it is the armed forces and people’s committees that brandish its blessed flag. And Iran, and Yemen! And the same in many parts of the world. The situation is different. America at the time was something (formidable), but today it is something else. Israel at the time was something (unbeaten), but today is something else. Israel was attacking (all its neighbors at will), now it builds (defensive) walls (against Hezbollah). So it’s a different matter, the conditions are very different (today).
As far as we are concerned, I want to tell you this: take things in a truly normal and natural way. I was long in my description, but I wanted to show that this is the reality of things. To speak in a familiar way, no need toget ourselves riled up about all this, there is nothing, nothing happened (that is of concern), really. So the United States would like to be more present in the region? Good for them. The worst thing that can happen, the worst is that the Americans come to the area. But they have already come to the region, bro! They have already come. They occupied Iraq, threatened Syria, threatened Iran… And then the Iraqi Resistance and the persistence of the Resistance Axis in the region forced them to go out and withdraw. What could the United States want to do (that could frighten us)?
Today, when we are peoples in our countries who are determined to live in dignity, to remain on our lands… We have not gone to the other end of the world, (we are right) here (at home), we (only) defend our blood, our women, our honor, our property, our homes, our dignity and the future of our children and grandchildren. And that is why we are stronger than the whole world. There is absolutely nothing that frightens us. We are stronger than ever. I do not say that (our enemies) are weaker than ever, I say they have less strength than ever.
And that is why we must take things with realism, assume our responsibility and continue on our path. We will continue to call to the end of the war against Yemen, to call for an opportunity for the Yemeni to negotiate, to call for an end to the aggression against the people of Bahrain and for the opening of negotiations, for stopping the support of terrorist takfiries in the region and seeking political solutions.
As for those (Saudi Arabia), God the Almighty says about them in a Qur’anic verse: “They spend their wealth to hinder (man) from the path of God, and so will they continue to spend (until they have none left); but in the end they will have (only) regrets and sighs; at length they will be overcome” (Sura 8, verse 36).
So that your money is not wasted in vain, and your efforts are not useless and vain, you can backtrack. I know that my voice will not be heard, but I say this only to have an argument (before God: I would have tried) and for the Last Judgment Day when I will be questioned and judged. And every one of us will be held accountable for his position at this stage. Everyone will be held accountable on the Day of Judgment on Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Holy places in Palestine. And we must assume that responsibility.
O my brothers and sisters, we said in 2006, based on the victory of May 2000 and the victory of July 2006, that the time of defeats is over, and that the time for victories has come. And these victories are before our very eyes, on all battlefields and on all terrains, the bitterest battles and the most difficult terrain. But the horizon, be certain, I repeat, trust in God and place your hopes in Him, trust in yourselves, trust in your people, and trust in your allies. We have confidence in our allies. We have confidence in all those we fight with.
As for you (Saudis)… Anyway, Trump told them, he said, “It’s up to you to take responsibility, do not expect us to come and fight for you.” Yesterday, NATO… Pardon, today, its Secretary General said (It was time ! Anyway.) that NATO will participate in the war against ISIS. But what did he say? “On the other hand, we will fight only from the air, we will not participate with ground forces.” “We will not participate with ground forces.” This (Trump) on which you count, it’s been a while since he left you and sold you to the slave markets.
But in the Resistance Axis, the noble Fighters who are ready to sacrifice themselves, truthful, sincere, who have sent their loved ones to battle, who have stood firm for decades, will never leave this battlefield and never give up neither before the Riyadh summit and its summits, nor after the Riyadh summit and its meetings, speeches and statements.
This Resistance, this resilient (Muslim) Community, these Resistance movements, these resistant peoples, will continue to raise the flag (of the struggle). This flag has been brandished, and it will never fall, until it fully realizes all the victories to which our peoples and our Community aspire.
We have absolute certainty. It is the promise of God, “And the promise of God is always fulfilled.” (Verse inscribed in the background – Koran, 17, 108)
May God bless you and grant you victory, and the peace of God be upon you, and His mercy and blessings.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

ترامب العرب: المقايضة الكبرى أم الخيبات الكبرى؟

الكاتب : أسعد أبو خليل

يمكن تحليل زيارة ترامب لبلاد العرب على أكثر من مستوى. المستوى الاستعراضي ـ الشكلي كان مشغولاً بعناية (بعناية فوضى رقصة العرضة في الجنادريّة). أراد آل سعود وصحبهم في مجلس التعاون الخليجي أن يبهروه بالفخامة (المبتذلة والمُفرطة، على طريقة الفخامة «الجماليّة» لدبي أو لاس فيغاس — مصدر إلهام المدينة الأولى) والفقاعة الاحتفاليّة.

الاحتفال بترامب كان أقرب إلى التقديس والتبجيل منه من الاحتفاء الرسمي البروتوكولي (بساطة استقبال ترامب في دولة العدوّ كانت من أجل التوكيد أن إسرائيل لا تحتاج إلى همروجة وإنفاق الأموال لشراء صداقة أميركا). وآل سعود استفاقوا من صدمة فوز ترامب. فالرجل كان على مرّ العقود يسخر من حكّام الخليج، ويقرّعهم دوماً، وظلّ طيلة أشهر حملته الانتخابيّة يطالبهم بدفع ثمن حماية أميركا لهم. حكام الخليج استثمروا في حملة هيلاري كلينتون الانتخابيّة لأن «مؤسّسة كلينتون» الفاسدة كانت تستفيد من عطايا ماليّة سخيّة من حكّام الخليج وشركائهم في «البزنس». وكانت صحافة النفط والغاز تزخر بمقالات هجاء (معظمها للبنانيّين) ضد ترامب، وتصنّفه في خانة الشعبويّين الخطيرين. وفي تلك المرحلة، كانت صحافة الخليج تنسب عداء ترامب لسلالات النفط والغاز إلى عداء مستحكم من قبله ضد الإسلام والمسلمين. لكن كل ذلك تغيّر. فجأة، تغيّرت أوامر الأمير الراعي للصحف العربيّة. توقّف دفق المقالات ضد ترامب، وتبخّرت التحليلات الشعبويّة التي كانت شبه يوميّة. كانت مقالات الترحيب بترامب من عبد الرحمن الراشد إيذاناً بمرحلة جديدة، وعندما يفتي الراشد (الأقرب إلى مصدر القرار) يتبع الباقون على الفور، وبلا سؤال أو جدال.

فهم الحكم الجديد في السعوديّة أصول اللعبة. ترامب لا يأبه للثبات في المواقف ولا التمسّك بالمبادئ في السياسة، ولا للانسجام الأخلاقي والسياسي. معاييره في السياسة مبنيّة على مصلحته السياسيّة والاقتصاديّة، وهي بدورها مبنيّة على تحقيق وعوده في زيادة الوظائف للشعب الأميركي. هو يعلم، مثل غيره من الحكّام، أن إمكانيّة إعادة انتخابه أو تعزيز فرص حزبه بالفوز بالانتخابات النصفيّة يتقرّر على أساس الوضع الاقتصادي والسياسات المحليّة وليس السياسات الخارجيّة (إلا إذا أدّت إلى كارثة بالمنظور الأميركي المحض). وبالغ العرب (والغربيّون) في توقّع تغيير جذري في السياسة الخارجيّة لأميركا لأنهم قلّلوا من صعوبة تغيير سياسات الإمبراطوريّة الخارجيّة بصرف النظر عن شخص الرئيس. وكما أن أوباما أكمل سياسات وحروب سلفه (وبنى عليها)، فإن ترامب سيكمل سياسات وحروب سلفه (ويبني عليها).

والحكم السعودي مشغول بتعزيز موقعه في العاصمة واشنطن. العمل الدعائي السعودي يتعاظم، واللوبيات تتوالد كالفطر، وهي منفصلة عن لوبيات النظام الإماراتي والقطري (وأمارات الخلاف بين الدول الثلاث  تظهر في إعلامهم وفي تقارير مراكز الأبحاث المُمولّة منهم، والخبراء في واشنطن ينحازون لهذا الطرف أو ذاك بناء على تمويل المركز). وعندما طار الأمير محمد بن سلمان بصورة عاجلة بعد انتخاب ترامب، عرف ما يريده الأخير. فهو صرّح أكثر من مرّة في حملته الانتخابيّة أن الحكم السعودي ما كان قد استمرّ في الحكم من دون الدعم الأميركي المباشر. وطالب الحكم السعودي بأن يسدّد نفقات حمايته الأميركيّة (كأن أميركا تحمي النظام السعودي حبّاً وبه وبسلالته). وكان محمد بن سلمان صريحاً في اللقاء المبكّر مع ترامب بأنّ النظام مستعدّ أن يلبّي مطالبه، وهي تتلخّص في ثلاثة أمور: ١) دفع نفقات الحماية الأميركيّة وهي بالمليارات، والتكفّل بدفع نفقات العمليّات العسكريّة في المنطقة (كما فعلت دول الخليج في حرب الخليج في عام ١٩٩١)، ٢) إنشاء جيش إسلامي (بقيادة سعوديّة) كي يقوم هو بمقاتلة أعداء أميركا في المنطقة، وكي يموت أفراده بالنيابة عن الجنود الأميركيّين. وهذا الجيش الإسلامي يضمّ طبعاً دولة العدوّ التي باتت أقرب إلى إسلام آل سعود من معظم المسلمين.

ومراسل «القدس العربي» في عمّان (وهو قريب من النظام) ذكر أنّ تقنيّة الأقمار الصناعيّة الإسرائيليّة ستكون جزءاً من هذا الجيش «الإسلامي». ٣) التعجيل بالتطبيع بين دول الخليج وبين دولة العدوّ الإسرائيلي. وكان ترامب جاهلاً بمدى عمق الروابط بين الحكومة الإسرائيليّة وأولاد زايد وآل سعود بصورة خاصّة. (طبعاً، حافظت سلالات قطر وعُمان والبحرين على علاقات سريّة مع العدوّ الإسرائيلي، والتنافس بين كل تلك الدول في تعزيز أواصر الصداقة مع العدوّ من شروط إرضاء الكونغرس الأميركي). وعندما أبدى الأمير السعودي استعداد نظامه للاستثمار السخي في أميركا (مباشرة أو عبر عقود صفقات أسلحة عملاقة)، غيّر ترامب من نمط تعاطيه مع النظام السعودي وعبّر عن رضاه فوراً. أصبح النظام السعودي نظامه المُفضّل بين الأنظمة (بالإضافة إلى نظام السيسي). والملك الأردني بالرغم من محاولات مستميتة منه (بما فيها التمترس في مقهى فندق كي يمرّ ترامب عليه للسلام بعد أن كان الأخير قد رفض استقباله مبكّراً  قبل غيره في البيت الأبيض)، لم يحظَ على رضى ترامب، ربما لأن ليس لديه ما يعطيه له. وهذا الرجل يبحث عن صفقات مقايضة في سياساته الخارجيّة. لكن الحفاظ على الصداقة مع آل سعود يجب أن يُقرأ كما باقي عناصر سياسة ترامب الخارجيّة: أي أن كلام الحملة الانخابيّة لا قيمة له في السياسة الخارجيّة إذا تناقض مع الثوابت في سياسات الإمبراطورية العالميّة.

والصفقات بين ترامب والسعوديّة كانت مذهلة في حجمها المُعلن: المبلغ قد يتراوح بين ٤٠٠ مليار و٥٠٠ مليار دولار، أي ما يعادل ما تبقّى من الاحتياط النقدي السعودي. صندوق الأجيال المقبلة في السعوديّة – نظريّاً فقط – سيذهب لحساب ترامب والحكومة الأميركيّة. والمبلغ يشمل صفقات تسلّح باهظة الأثمان بالإضافة إلى استثمارات في داخل أميركا. ما يريده ترامب ببساطة هو إعادة تدوير كل عائدات النفط السعوديّة في السوق الأميركيّة. والعائدات كانت في الكثير منها تُدوَّر في أميركا: بواسطة صفقات تسلّح عملاقة وفي استثمارات ماليّة سعوديّة (بلغ حجم شراء سندات الخزينة الأميركيّة ١١٠ مليارات دولار من السعوديّة و٦٠ ملياراً من دولة الإمارات و٣٢ من الكويت). لكن الإنفاق السابق لم يعد يكفي في عهد ترامب. وحجم الصفقة أسعدَ ترامب كثيراً، وهو -لا غيره- الذي دفع ترامب لاختيار السعوديّة كوجهته الأولى في سفرته الخارجيّة الأولى. هو أراد من الزيارة أن يُعزّز موقعه الداخلي في خضم أزمة سياسيّة قانونيّة. إعلان الوظائف الأميركيّة هو الجانب الذي شدّد عليه في حديثه للجمهور الأميركي.

لكن الإعلان التجاري الضخم محفوف بالمبالغات التي نعهدها من ترامب ومن آل سعود على حدّ سواء. لآل سعود سجلّ طويل في إعلان نيّات شراء ومنح مساعدات لا تتحقّق أبداً. نتذكّر التهليل اللبناني للمنحة السعوديّة للجيش اللبناني، كما نتذكّر مزاعم المنح التي أعلنها آل سعود لصالح الشعب الأفغاني والسوري في مؤتمرات متلاحقة على مرّ السنوات الماضية. وفي الجانب الآخر، لم يتبلّغ الكونغرس رسميّاً بعد، كما أشار موقع «ديفنس وان» في مقالة شكّكت في أرقام صفقة التسلّح، قرار صفقة السلاح. وأعطى الموقع المذكور مثالاً عن إعلان مماثل في عهد أوباما بقيمة ١١٥ مليار دولار لصالح الحكم السعودي. ومن هذا المبلغ، لم يتم الاتفاق على اتفاقيّات رسميّة إلّا بحجم نصف المبلغ، ولم يُسلّم من الصفقة إلا ما قيمته ٢٠ مليار دولار. ويفصل بين توقيع الاتفاقيّات الرسميّة والتسليم الرسمي للسلاح سنوات طويلة. وذكّر الموقع أن صفقة أُبرمت في عام ٢٠١٠ لطائرات «إف ١٥» للسعوديّة، لكن الطائرات لم تصل إلا في ديسمبر/ كانون الأول من عام ٢٠١٦. واللوبي الإسرائيلي بدأ بالتعبير الخجول (بعض الشيء) عن قلقه من حجم الصفقات تلك، مع أن العدوّ لا يشككّ بالنوايا الحسنة من آل سعود نحوه.

اللوبي الإسرائيلي له سلطة الموافقة على كل صفقات التسلّح للدول العربيّة. وقد أكّد مسؤولون في إدارة ترامب هذا الأسبوع أن صفقات التسلّح الخليجيّة لا تتناقض، أو لن تتناقض، البتّة مع الالتزام الرسمي الأميركي بالتفوّق النوعي للقوّة العسكريّة الإسرائيليّة وقدرتها على مجابهة تهديد من أكثر من دولة عربيّة. لكن القلق الإسرائيلي ينمّ عن تشكيك بقدرة النظام السعودي على الاستمرار. وفي حال سقوطه، تخشى دولة العدوّ أن يسيطر أعداء لها في المملكة على سلاح نوعي متطوّر. (طبعاً، يخضع السلاح المُصدَّر إلى المملكة لشتّى أنواع القيود والمراقبة: فالقوّات المسلّحة الأميركيّة تتواجد للسيطرة على طائرات ومراكز المراقبة كي تتيقّن من أن الأهداف لا تتضمّن دولة العدوّ، كما أن السلاح الأميركي المُصدّر إلى السعوديّة يكون أقلّ تطوّراً من صنف السلاح نفسه الذي تتلقّاه دولة العدوّ).

والصفقات المذكورة ليست مؤكّدة لسبب آخر: هي متأثّرة بعوامل سياسيّة واقتصاديّة. فلو هبط سعر النفط مجدّداً، فإن قدرة المملكة على التسوّق المهول تضمحلّ. والنظام، كما حدث في الشهر الماضي، بحاجة ماسّة إلى تحسين مستوى المعيشة في المملكة، وهذا الإنفاق هو ضروري ليس فقط من أجل الشرعيّة السياسيّة بل من أجل الحفاظ على سلامة النظام. وترامب كان واضحاً في إعلانه أنّ الهدف من هذه الاتفاقيّات (ونشر الإعلام السعودي ١٦ صنفاً منها، وهي كلّها من جهة واحدة، أي أن السعوديّة تعطي، وأميركا تأخذ) هو خلق وظائف عمل للشعب الأميركي. والإعلام السعودي قلّد إعلان ترامب وزعم أنّ الاتفاقيّات ستخلق فرص عمل للشعب في المملكة. لكن كيف سيحدث ذلك؟ إن شركات صنع السلاح موجودة في أميركا ومن المشكوك فيه أن يخلق فتح فرع لمصنع شركة تصنيع «الهليكوبتر» المقاتلة «بلاك هوك»، بقيمة ٦ مليارات دولار، وظائف كثيرة للسعوديّين (وعمالة مصانع السلاح تحتاج إلى مهارة وتدريب غير متوفّرة في المملكة). ومن المرجّح أن يكون المصنع للتجميع فقط، وبأسعار تجني منها الشركة الأميركيّة أرباحاً هائلة. أما شركة «جنرال داينمكس» فلم تعِد – خلافاً للمزاعم الواردة في الإعلام السعودي – إلا كلاماً عامّاً عن فتح فرع محلّي لـ«التصميم والتصنيع والهندسة والدعم للآليّات المقاتلة المصفّحة».

ماذا تريد أميركا من السعوديّة، ماذا تريد السعوديّة من أميركا. تريد الحكومة الأميركيّة من النظام السعودي المال، والمال الكثير: أما الطاعة فهي تنالها من دون كثير عناء. كما أنّ الحكومة الأميركيّة تريد أيضاً أن تتكفّل جيوش «مجلس التعاون الخليجي» بنفقات الدفاع الإقليمي عن الأنظمة، وقتال أعداء أميركا في المنطقة. لكن الأداء العسكري السعودي والإماراتي (المدعّم بتدخّل أميركي وبريطاني) في اليمن لا يطمئِن الراعي الأميركي. أي أنّ الاعتماد الأميركي على جيوش دول الخليج لتولّي المهام الاستعماريّة القتاليّة بالنيابة عن أميركا لن يؤتي ثماره. وهذه الخيبة ستقلّل من ثقة الحكومة الأميركيّة بدول الخليج. وهذه الخيبة قد تؤدّي – على الأقل في ظل هذه الإدارة – إلى تخفيف الوجود العسكري الأميركي في الخليج، إلا فيما يتعلّق بمهام خاصّة فقط بأميركا، لا بحلفائها. والتنسيق بين جيوش الأنظمة الموالية لأميركا ضعيف: فالنظام المصري لا يزال يرفض بالرغم من الإغراءات المشاركة البريّة في حرب اليمن، وقوّات الإمارات تحارب تلك الميلشيات الموالية للسعوديّة.

أما المهمّة الأخرى التي أوكلتها أميركا للحكم السعودي فتتعلّق بنشر الاعتدال ومحاربة التطرّف. ولمس «البلّورة السحريّة» من قبل الحكّام في الرياض كان بهدف افتتاح المركز المعني بمحاربة التطرّف ونشر الاعتدال (مَن ينشر هذا الاعتدال؟ دعاة الوهابيّة؟ أم كبار العلماء في الرياض؟). لكن ليست هذه المرّة الأولى التي تفتتح فيها السعوديّة مراكز لمحاربة الإرهاب. وهي افتتحت في فيينا مركزاً لحوار الأديان. ماذا حلّ به؟ وكيف يجري هذا الحوار الذي رافقه عشاء حميم بين عبدالله بن عبد العزيز وشمعون بيريز في نيويورك؟ وهناك أيضاً مراكز تأهيل الإرهابيّين في السعوديّة، والتي خرّجت أعضاء جدد في المنظمّات الإرهابيّة. وماذا عن الدور الذي أوكلته الحكومة الأميركيّة في عهد أوباما لدولة الإمارات لتولّي أمر محاربة الإرهاب على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي؟ ما الفارق بين الجهد السعودي والإماراتي؟ ومَن يقرّر إذا كان الجهد الخليجي ناجح أم لا، خصوصاً وأن الكلام الأميركي الرسمي في السرّ عن دور دول الخليج في تدعيم المنظمات الإرهابيّة يتناقض مع الكلام الرسمي العلني؟

الأهم، مهما طالت السنين، أن دول الغرب ستكتشف عاجلاً أم آجلاً أن محاربة التطرّف لا يمكن أن تتحقّق من خلال التعاون مع الأنظمة التي ترعى تلك العقائد والأيديولوجيّات الدينيّة المتطرّفة، ومن دون وقف الحروب والغزوات الغربيّة التي لم تتوقّف منذ الحرب العالميّة الثانية. وترامب الذي جاهر بعدائه للإسلام والمسلمين، اكتشف أنه يتعاطف مع الانشقاق الوهابي في الإسلام. أي أن الوهابية عند ترامب وصحبه هي التيّار المعتدل الوحيد في صف الإسلام والمسلمين. وعليه، فإن على أحفاد محمد بن عبد الوهاب، نشر الاعتدال والتسامح والنسويّة والعلمانيّة في العالم الإسلامي.

لكن دول الخليج تعوّل كثيراً على ترامب. والتعويل على الرئيس الأميركي ليس بجديد. هناك تاريخ طويل من التهليل السعودي للإدارة الأميركيّة الجديدة – لأي إدارة جديدة. ومراجعة التاريخ المعاصر من العلاقات الأميركيّة ــ السعوديّة تظهر أن هناك نمطاً سياقياً في موقف النظام السعودي من أي إدارة أميركيّة: هي تبدأ بالحماسة الكبيرة، وتنتهي دوماً بالخيبة الكبيرة. كان النظام السعودي شديد التأييد لسياسة ريغان، وتشاركا في مكافحة الشيوعيّة حول العالم، لكن النظام السعودي خاب أمله من إمكانيّة قيام إدارة ريغان بشن حرب على إيران لتغيير نظامها. وحتى نظام جورج دبليو بوش: كان الحكم السعودي شديد التأييد لسياسات بوش في البداية، لكنه انزعج من ردّة الفعل الأميركيّة على ١١ أيلول. والسعوديّة ساهمت سرّاً في دعم الغزو الأميركي للعراق، ثم عارضت فيما بعد الاحتلال الأميركي بسبب تنامي النفوذ الإيراني في العراق وانتشار المنظمّات الإرهابيّة في المنطقة (والتي ساهمت هي في إنشائها ورعايتها وتوليدها عبر التاريخ). وفي أوّل إدارة أوباما، كان النظام السعودي يقول إن الرئيس الجديد سيصوّب ما ارتكبه بوش من أخطاء، لكن خيبة النظام كانت كبيرة بعد توقيع الاتفاق النووي. وعليه، يمكن توقّع خيبة سعوديّة قد تأتي في وقت مبكّر.

ومن المرّجح أن تُسجَّل الخيبة السعوديّة من إدارة ترامب مبكّراً. فهي تتوقّع منه الكثير، وتتطلّب منه الكثير. هي تريد منه (مقابل إعلانات الشراء والاستثمار بالمليارات) أن يشنّ حروباً بلا هوادة في اليمن وسوريا ولبنان بالنيابة عن مصالحها. لكن هناك ضوابط ستقيّد حركة ترامب الخارجيّة. فالرجل واقع في مشاكل سياسيّة ودستوريّة وقانونيّة لم يسبق أن واجهها رئيس في هذه الفترة المبكّرة من عهده: وهو منبوذ في بلاده وفي دول العالم، ومُكرَّم فقط في دول الخليج. كما أن جهله بالعمل السياسي والعلاقات بين المؤسّسات أضعف من قدرته على معالجة هذه المشاكل. وخطيئته الكبرى أنه أشعل خلافاً عميقاً مع أجهزة المخابرات: وهي دولة عملاقة ضمن الدولة الأميركيّة. إن حملات الصحف الأميركيّة ضد ترامب تُحرَّك من أجهزة المخابرات. وإقصاء مدير مكتب التحقيقات الفدرالي سيضمن أن ينضم المكتب إلى معسكر أعدائه، مما سيزيد من التسريبات المضرّة له. ترامب سيكون غارِقاً في مشاكله الداخليّة ومنصرفاً عن هموم مستهلكي السلاح في الخليج.

وسياسات ترامب الخارجيّة وحروبه لن تكون على نسق نشر القوّات. لقد شهد ترامب حدود التأثير الأميركي حتى في ظل نشر هائل للقوّات كما في العراق وأفغانستان. وتركيزه على تحقيق وعود السياسة الخارجيّة ستمنعه من الانخراط في حروب ومغامرات محمد بن سلمان. وهنا ستتمثّل الخيبة الكبرى. لن تشن أميركا حرباً على إيران أو اليمن أو لبنان، من أجل تحقيق «رؤية» ابن سلمان. سيكتشف الأخير أن  مشاريعه الحربيّة ستكون من نصيبه وحده، بالاشتراك مع شريكه الإماراتي (مع الاستعانة بمرتزقة من دول إسلاميّة كما هو الحال في «عاصفة الحزم»). هذا لا يعني أن أميركا لن تزوّده بالسلاح وأنها لن تدعم حروبه بالمعلومات الاستخباراتيّة والخطب الحماسيّة. والخيبة المتوقّعة هذه ستزيد من اعتماد الحلف السعودي ـ الإماراتي على دولة العدوّ الإسرائيلي. وتبيّن لترامب خلال زيارته مدى التعاون بين دول الخليج وبين دولة العدوّ. وسرّبت الحكومة الأميركيّة قبل أيّام في «نيويورك تايمز» أن دول الخليج «تحت الرادار» تشتري سرّاً تكنولوجيا زراعيّة وطبيّة وأمنيّة من دولة العدوّ عبر عقود تجاريّة من خلال طرف ثالث لحجب هويّة المصدر.

والتحالف بين دول الخليج ودولة العدوّ سيثبتُ أنه قد يكون أثمن لهم من تحالفهم مع أميركا.
كلّما كبرت التوقّعات والطموحات كلّما كبرت الخيبات. ودول الخليج ستكتشف أنها عوّلت على رئيس قد يكون ـ إن لم يكن اليوم ــ أضعف رئيس لأميركا بحكم المصاعب الداخليّة التي يواجهها. وترامب يعلم أن نشر القوّات الأميركيّة لصالح دول الخليج سيؤثّر على الاقتصاد الذي يرعاه بعناية فائقة (ليس لديه ما يقدّمه للشعب الأميركي إلا وعود البحبوحة والازدهار). لكن مثلما حدث مع إدارة أوباما، ستتذمّر دول الخليج لكن ليس لديها خيار آخر. وهي مهما تتقرّب من دولة العدوّ فإن الأخيرة تولّي تحالفها مع أميركا على أي تحالف آخر — حتى في ظل رئاسة أوباما نفسه.

لكن يمكن لمحمد بن سلمان أن يدعو نتنياهو إلى الرياض ـ والأخير مستعد للزيارة ــ من أجل لمس «البلّورة المُضاءة»، وربما المشاركة في مراسم غسيل الكعبة.


   ( الاثنين 2017/05/29 SyriaNow)
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